My logic is this every year we have 3-4-5 QBs that everyone drools all over themselves about prior to the draft
of those 3 to 5 QBs how many of them 3-4-5 years down the road have panned out ?
20% or less end up being the guy everyone seemed to think they would be
you want to double down on the currency spent ( 1st round picks ) for a shot at getting a guy who has a 20-30% chance or less of being what you thought he would be ? go for it I will laugh at your efforts more often than you will give me reason to applaud them ...
2015 QBs went 1 and 2 overall neither have set the world on fire in the wins department
2014 Three QBs drafted in the first round and Bortles in the only 1 with his original team
2013 EJ Manual was only QB drafted in 1st round where is he at ?
2012 Luck ,RG3 , Ryan Tannehill and Branden Weeden ... how many playoff wins do they have combined ?
2011 Cam Newton , Jake Locker ,Blaine Gabbert , Christian Ponder ......
2010 Sam Bradford the best QB prospect in 30 years they told us he is a can not miss prospect ...what has he won ? oh and Tim Tebow was the other 1st rounder that year
so in summary 16 QBs drafted in the first round from 2010 through 2015 and if we are judging by wins and ability to be on the field week in and week out Cam Newton is the only 1 of the bunch worth a lick of salt ... sure injuries played a part esp with Luck and perhaps RG3 but even if we grade on a huge curve and include them for their limited success odds are still pretty damned slim you walk away with a quality franchise player you are spending a shit ton of resources on
so I say let them trade away 2 first round picks to move up and get a guy that more than likely is closer to Brandon Weedon in 5 years than Tom Brady
on the flip side of that
round 2 QBs over same time frame
less than half as many selected as round 1 in those same years just as many SB appearances and a higher rate of success percentage wise ( if Jimmy G ends up being what the 49ers are banking on based on his 5 starts 5 wins to end 2017 ) its a slam dunk ...
now I am not saying do not take your shot at a QB when those shots present themselves , but I am saying NEVER over pay for those shots because they come with HIGH risk and often times very low rewards ...
while pickins may be slimmer rd 2 and on they often present just as high of reward with much less risk
hell take a shot round 4 and beyond every damned year until your room is so full of talent you need not do it if you must ... but those shots are not killing you ... sure if you are desperate because you do not have a franchise QB you cant wait and do this but when you have 1 your foolish not to take cheap shots at a prize
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